Global vehicle demand forecast 2020-2030

The coronavirus (covid-19) outbreak is an unprecedented event in modern history. Markets have never faced such a widescale disruption in peacetime. In an effort to contain the virus, a large share of the world’s population is now living and working under something like house arrest, allowed only to leave for specific reasons.

With economic and industrial activity largely put on hold, our analysis reveals that there will be a severe demand-side impact leading to a sharp decline in vehicle sales volumes. At the global level, our base-case assessment is for an 11% drop from 2019. However, in the event of failures to contain the virus and even longer lockdowns, global sales could plummet by more than 20%. The worst-hit region is likely to be Europe, but the impact in North America is also likely to be significant.

Such falls would be far more extreme than the 2008-2009 financial crisis – and the pain felt could be much deeper than it was then.

Download our full report and analysis on the impact of global vehicle demand across major regions, and get a deeper understanding of how the coronavirus will affect automotive sales. Our forecast includes assessments for all regions according to best case, base case and worst case scenarios. 

The full report includes:

Analysis of demand impact andgovernment support and economic stimulus

Vehicle sales forecast 2020-2030 for:
The US and North America
Europe
China
Japan
Rest of APAC and Oceania
Central & South America
Middle East & Africa